Buoy Observation Cams

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 271031
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1205 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1030 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough is analyzed over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
  03N16W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
  south of 06N and west of 25W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure system near
  New England and lower pressures over the central United States
  and Mexico result in fresh to strong SE winds across much of the
  Gulf of Mexico. Seas in these waters are mainly moderate. The
  upper level trough over the central United States support widespread
  mid to upper level cloudiness over most of the basin. However, no
  deep convection is observed on satellite imagery.
  
  For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a strong
  ridge in the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in the central US and
  Mexico will support fresh to strong southeast winds over much of
  the Gulf through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 10 ft
  in the NW and central Gulf today and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will
  pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each
  evening through the forecast period.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A combination of a surface trough that extends across eastern
  Hispaniola and an upper level trough over the western Atlantic
  result in scattered moderate convection affecting the eastern
  Greater Antilles and surrounding waters. Heavy rains and flooding
  have been occurring in Hispaniola during the last week or so. It
  is possible that continual amounts of rain may help to increase
  the chances for flash flooding in inland areas, especially in
  hilly terrain and in low-lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins
  from your local weather service offices for more details about
  this event. Meanwhile, generally dry conditions are noted in the
  NW Caribbean.
  
  The pressure gradient between a strong ridge in the NW Atlantic
  and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong
  easterly trade winds in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba, off
  southern Hispaniola and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters
  are 3-6 ft and forecast to build to 9 ft later today. Moderate to
  locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are present in
  the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
  and slight to moderate seas prevail.
  
  For the forecast, a strong high pressure system centered off New
  England will force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of
  Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
  through early next week. Seas will peak near 9 ft during the
  strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will
  prevail in the rest of the basin. Northerly swell will push seas
  to 8 ft through the water passages in the NE Caribbean early next
  week.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A surface trough extends from 31N59W to eastern Hispaniola. A few
  showers are seen near the trough. The 1034 mb high pressure off
  New England sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds behind the surface
  trough, with the strongest winds occurring between the central
  and SE Bahamas and Cuba. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The
  remainder of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge centered
  near the Azores, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate
  seas.
  
  For the forecast, surface trough extends from 31N59W to 19N69W.
  The cold front north of the area will merge with the surface
  trough this morning and the front will reach from near 25N55W to
  Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken over the far
  southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind
  the front will build seas to a peak of 12 ft over northeast
  offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of
  the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds
  behind the front from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, fresh
  winds will prevail in the wake of the weakening front and continue
  through Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure
  becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with
  the induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to east winds over
  the southern waters.
  
  $$
  Delgado